Will the Republican Party Survive the 2. Election? The angriest and most pessimistic people in America aren. Middle- class and middle- aged; not rich and not poor; people who are irked when asked to press 1 for English, and who wonder how white male became an accusation rather than a description. E a part of a process that is changing global communication. Blogging is a way for individuals to publish material on the internet for everybody to read. You can do it right here, right now. BlogSome is the fastest growing blog host in the world (in percentage terms!). Hawaii's source for local news headlines. In-depth coverage of Hawaii news from your trusted daily newspaper. Call 538-NEWS (6397) to subscribe today! Each Sunday, the Honolulu Star-Advertiser publishes Oahu vital statistics for marriage licenses and birth. You can measure their pessimism in polls that ask about their expectations for their lives. On both counts, whites without a college degree express the bleakest view. You can see the effects of their despair in the new statistics describing horrifying rates of suicide and substance- abuse fatality among this same group, in middle age. Costco Wholesale Home. Shop All Departments or Search for what you want to find. Find a Costco Near You. Education For anyone in education including teachers, students, parents, librarians, schools, and universities. Featuring Wikispaces Classroom and Wikispaces Campus. Every day in June, the most popular wedding month of the year, about 13,000 American couples will say “I do,” committing to a lifelong relationship that will be full of friendship, joy, and love that will carry them forward to their final days on this earth. Except, of course, it doesn’t work. White Middle Americans express heavy mistrust of every institution in American society: not only government, but corporations, unions, even the political party they typically vote for. And when Donald Trump came along, they were the people who told the pollsters, . But they do strongly feel that life in this country used to be better for people like them. Across Europe, populist parties are delivering a message that combines defense of the welfare state with skepticism about immigration; that denounces the corruption of parliamentary democracy and also the risks of global capitalism. Some of these parties have a leftish flavor, like Italy. Some are rooted to the right of center, like the U. K. Some descend from neofascists, like France. Others trace their DNA to Communist parties, like Slovakia. In the United States, they lean Republican because they fear the Democrats want to take from them and redistribute to Americans who are newer, poorer, and in their view less deserving. Yet they have come to fear more and more strongly that their party does not have their best interests at heart. Against all evidence, GOP donors interpreted the Tea Party as a movement in favor of the agenda of the Wall Street Journal editorial page. A majority of Republicans worry that corporations and the wealthy exert too much power. Their party leaders work to ensure that these same groups can exert even more. Mainstream Republicans were quite at ease with tax increases on households earning more than $2. Great Recession and the subsequent stimulus. Their congressional representatives had the opposite priorities. In 2. 00. 8, many Republican primary voters had agreed with former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who wanted . Their rebellion against the power of organized money has upended American politics in ways that may reverberate for a long time. To understand what may come next, we must first review the recent past. Ben Carson at a town- hall meeting at the University of New Hampshire. Throughout this story, GOP candidates are shown on the stump in the Granite State last summer and fall, in photographs shot for The Atlantic and New Hampshire magazine. In his famous book Bowling Alone, published in 2. Robert Putnam bemoaned the collapse in American political participation during the second half of the 2. Putnam suggested that this trend would continue as the World War II generation gave way to disengaged Gen Xers. But even as Putnam. In the 1. 99. 6 presidential election, voter turnout had tumbled to the lowest level since the 1. Turnout rose slightly in November 2. Then, suddenly: overdrive. In the presidential elections of 2. Voters were excited by a hailstorm of divisive events: the dot- com bust, the Bush- versus- Gore recount, the 9/1. Iraq War, the financial crisis, the bailouts and stimulus, and the Affordable Care Act. Putnam was right that Americans were turning away from traditional sources of information. But that was because they were turning to new ones: first cable news channels and partisan political documentaries; then blogs and news aggregators like the Drudge Report and The Huffington Post; after that, and most decisively, social media. Politics was becoming more central to Americans. Would you be upset if your child married a supporter of a different party from your own? In 1. 96. 0, only 5 percent of Americans said yes. In 2. 01. 0, a third of Democrats and half of Republicans did. Political identity has become so central because it has come to overlap with so many other aspects of identity: race, religion, lifestyle. Today, that hobby strongly suggests Republican loyalty. In 1. 96. 0, that indicated little. Today, it predicts that you. Since 1. 98. 4, nearly every Democratic presidential- primary race has ended as a contest between a . The Republicans have their equivalent in the battles between . Until this decade, however, both parties. In 2. 01. 4, real median household income remained almost $4,0. The country has recovered from the worst economic disaster since the Great Depression. Most of its people have not. Many Republicans haven. They were not, as a rule, libertarians looking for an ultraminimal government. The closest study we have of the beliefs of Tea Party supporters, led by Theda Skocpol, a Harvard political scientist, found that . The distinction between . But if so, that person wasn. The Obama administration had laid hands on Medicare. It hoped to squeeze $5. A substantial minority of Republicans. Within the party that made Paul Ryan. Less than a third of ordinary Republicans supported a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants (again according to Pew); a majority, by contrast, favored stepped- up deportation. As a class, big Republican donors could not see any of this, or would not. So neither did the politicians who depend upon them. Against all evidence, both groups interpreted the Tea Party as a mass movement in favor of the agenda of the Wall Street Journal editorial page. One of the more dangerous pleasures of great wealth is that you never have to hear anyone tell you that you are completely wrong. Jeb Bush on his campaign bus in Rye on November 3. The rank and file did not like it. But they could not stop it. The base kept elevating . One might have expected this shock to force a rethink. The Republicans had now lost four out of the past six presidential elections. Another election had been won only in the Electoral College, despite the loss of the popular vote. Even their best showing, 5. And yet, within hours of Romney. The problem had not been the plan to phase out Medicare for people younger than 5. Or the lack of ideas about how to raise wages. Or the commitment to ending health- insurance coverage for millions of working- age Americans. Or the anthems to wealth creation and entrepreneurship in a country increasingly skeptical of both. No, the problem was the one element of Romney. They are better positioned to enjoy the attractive cultural and social results of migration (more- interesting food!) and to protect themselves against the burdensome impacts (surges in non- English- proficient pupils in public schools). A pro- immigration policy shift was one more assertion of class interest in a party program already brimful of them. Nobody expressed the party elites. The other party thinks it owns the demographic future. Do not, however, abandon the party. I think you control the border first, you create a pathway for those people that are here, you don. The report generally avoided policy recommendations, with a notable exception: . Otherwise, the party yielded on nothing and doubled down on everything. No compromises. Ted Cruz at a Practical Federalism forum at Southern New Hampshire University, in Hooksett, on October 3. The drive to cut the deficit ended in budget sequestration, whose harshest effect fell on the military. The Gang of Eight deal never came to a vote in the House. All the while, Republicans. Instead of holding on to their base and adding Hispanics, Republicans alienated their base in return for no gains at all. By mid- 2. 01. 5, a majority of self- identified Republicans disapproved of their party. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, the No. Republican caucus, had emerged as a leader of the new line on immigration. Up for reelection in Virginia. Those challenges had ended badly in the general election, for the most part: Tea Party Republicans lost at least five Senate seats that might plausibly have been won. Party leaders believed the lesson had been learned and expected their voters to be more tractable in future elections. Cantor. Immigration reform slipped off their agenda. Marco Rubio repudiated his own deal. But Republican elites outside Congress did not get the message. They rationalized Cantor. They continued to fill the coffers of Jeb Bush and, to a lesser extent, Rubio and Scott Walker, all reliable purveyors of Conservatism Classic. Last February, three of the party. Zwick said that any presidential candidate who wanted to be taken seriously had better . In his financial disclosure for the second quarter of 2. Bush reported raising $1. PAC. These funds were provided by a relatively small number of very wealthy people. Almost 8. 2 percent arrived in the maximum increment of $2,7. Nearly 8. 0 percent of Bush. Between December 2. September 2. 01. 5, Jeb Bush plunged from first place in the Republican field to fifth. Between late September and mid- October, he purchased 6. New Hampshire. That ad barrage pushed his poll numbers in the state from about 9 percent to about 8 percent. Chris Christie at the 2. New Hampshire Education Summit in Londonerry on August 1. At the same time, Bush passionately supported immigration liberalization. The central event in his life history was his reinvention as an honorary Latino American when he married a Mexican woman, Columba Garnica de Gallo. He spoke Spanish at home. He converted to Catholicism. He sought his fortune with a Cuban American business partner. In his most quotable phrase, he described illegal immigration as an . He had won accolades from Karl Rove (. Yet within five weeks of his formal declaration of candidacy on June 1. Bush. Rudy Giuliani imploded in 2. But Giuliani lost ground to two rivals equally acceptable to the donor elite, or nearly so: Mitt Romney and John Mc. Cain. In both cycles, resistance to the party favorite was concentrated among social and religious conservatives. The mutiny of the 2.
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